Weekly Recap - 23.10.2023

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
“Buy Bitcoin and self custody.
– Bitcoin doesn’t care about Gensler.
– Bitcoin doesn’t care about war.
– Bitcoin doesn’t care about SBF.
– Bitcoin doesn’t care about BlackRock.
– Bitcoin doesn’t care about fake news.
– Bitcoin doesn’t care about price targets.

Tick tock, another block.”

Predicting emergent complex behavior on an honest, immutable ledger is very difficult if you’re measuring it from a dishonest, manipulated ledger. What system are you measuring from? Bitcoin! – Jeff Booth “

🧡Bitcoin news:
➡️ Yesterday we received the news that FinCEN is proposing to apply section 311 of the Patriot Act against basically all types of crypto privacy, including noncustodial methods. On top of that, you add the fact that the BIS, as discussed in last week’s Weekly Recap, released its Project Atlas whitepaper which aims to monitor and track every move on the ‘Blockchain’.

We are in the: then they fight you (stage)! FinCEN is one of 18+ (we don’t know how many there are for sure) U.S. Federal intelligence organizations. It shares data with intelligence orgs in 100+ other countries. It derives its authority from the 1970 Banking Secrecy Act and the Patriot Act.

If you are not familiar with the recent FinCEN proposal, read Brian Trollz’s (Shinobi): “FinCEN Proposals Insane Special Measures” to learn about the recent draconian government proposal. We have 90 days to respond. They want every transaction tracked.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/fincen-proposes-insane-special-measures

As Lyn Alden mentioned on X:

“The gates are down. The more that automated privacy techniques become ubiquitous, the less powerful their surveillance techniques are. Victory by a thousand cuts and civil disobedience of people wanting their spending to be secure and private.” https://twitter.com/AnselLindner/status/1715855382919188855

And I fully agree with Jeff Booth: “An important reminder that coercion and control is the end state of manipulated money. (loss of individual rights and freedoms) If it didn’t look like that, would the places with the most broken money would have the best laws “protecting” people” https://twitter.com/JeffBooth/status/1715732119480352804

➡️ According to @SGJohnsson the amended BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF filing says they may be looking to seed the ETF with cash this month. Don’t want to read that much into it but it is new info not in the original filing so noteworthy (esp because they are BlackRock. The race is on people! Just a caution flag. Don’t FOMO in!!
➡️ Argentina’s presidential election is now (Sunday evening) underway. Are you ready for the next Bitcoin president? Argentina’s economy is about 20x bigger than El Salvador’s and a pro-Bitcoin candidate is leading the polls heading into today’s election. Pro-Bitcoin Presidential candidate in Argentina leads his rival into the election held today. Javier Milei: 30% Sergio Massa: 25%

Result: “Argentina’s ruling Peronist coalition smashed expectations to lead the country’s general election on Sunday, setting the stage for a polarized run-off vote next month between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and far-right libertarian radical Javier Milei. Massa had 36.6% of the vote, ahead of Milei on just over 30%, while conservative Patricia Bullrich was behind on 23.8% with nearly 98% of the vote counted, a result that defied pre-election polls that had predicted a libertarian win.”- Reuters

➡️ After Jim Cramer said: “Bitcoin is about to go down big!” Bitcoin is up by roughly 13%. This guy is a friggin’ national treasure as an inverse indicator, everything that man is saying should be taken in a contrarian way, and he should be protected at all costs.

➡️Bitcoin dominance hits highest point in over two years.

➡️ Bitcoin hash rate is going absolutely parabolic, smashing through 450TH/s and another all-time high this week.

➡️CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink during the rally that started last week. “This rally today is way beyond the [bitcoin spot ETF] rumor. The rally today is about a flight to quality.” This was not on my Bingo Bitcoin 2023 card. I really didn’t foresee Larry Fink of all people becoming Bitcoin’s marketing department, pushing it as a “flight to quality” due to difficult geopolitical times. Funny how game theory works isn’t?

➡️”A significant % of Bitcoin’s realized cap comes from coins that have not moved in 2 years or longer. This trend historically precedes bull markets. Supply illiquidity is the charcoal, logs, and kindling. Demand is the match. The halving is lighter fluid” – MitchellHodl

➡️

Great news, not because it is faster to mine, but because open-source mining can open up creativity and innovation for dual-purpose mining. Next to that from a decentralization perspective, we need to have more miner choices than the Chinese ones.

➡️ Bitbox: Bringing Lightning to the BitBoxApp! Bitbox is exploring seamless, non-custodial Lightning payments directly within the BitBoxApp by partnering with Breeze and using their Breez SDK (read here for more on the SDK)

Why does Bitbox want to add Lightning Support to their cold storage wallet? By adding a non-custodial Lightning wallet to the already familiar BitBoxApp, they can create a secure and seamless experience to spend your Bitcoin wherever you go. All this without a custodian having control over your funds.

Great addition! For more info: read here

Bringing Lightning to the BitBoxApp
We are exploring seamless, non-custodial Lightning payments directly within the BitBoxApp

Get your Bitbox02 (Bitcoin-only version) now here

➡️ At the Plan B conference in Lugano Relai announced that they will integrate Lightning into the app. For more info read the news blog:

➡️ Follow the Money Series: by Peter McCormack.

https://whatbitcoindid.com/wbd-films
These are really solid documentaries. Highly recommend watching all four films.

➡️ Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors hit an All-Time high of 76%

➡️Bitcoin dominance clocking in at ca. 52.27%. The highest level in 908 days

➡️ Bitcoin hash rate is going absolutely parabolic, smashing through 450TH/s and another all-time high this week.

➡️ Blockchain data shows a record 76% of Bitcoin is owned by ‘long-term hodlers’ who have not moved their coins in +155 days.

👉🏽As mentioned last week a few tech stocks are still the backbone of the market, the S&P500. And no that is not the real economy. The S&P 493 is now up just ~4% in 2023 while tech stocks continue to push higher. Meanwhile, the S&P 7, which is the remaining 7 large tech stocks in the S&P 500, is up ~57% in 2023. Combined, the S&P 500 is up ~14% YTD. Without tech stocks and recent AI hype, markets would be significantly lower.

🏦Banks:
👉🏽 Bank of America reports a $131.6 billion unrealized loss on securities in Q3. “Unrealized losses have come under closer scrutiny by investors since March. At the time, SVB sold a portfolio of its holding at a sharp loss, precipitating its collapse and fueling the worst industry turmoil since the 2008 financial crisis”
Source: Reuters

“UST yields continue to break the banks. 10s are at a 16-year high of 4.91% — meanwhile, the 30s crossed 5% for the first time since 2006 As yields soar, the price of outstanding bonds falls. This has left a hole in banks’ balance sheets, $1.625 trillion in size, and counting.” – Joe Consorti
With the most recent leg down, this US bond selloff is on par with the largest ever in history. It’s also in line with the largest falls for major countries that didn’t lose a world war or have hyperinflation.
“Bottom line, either way, this current extreme move in yields is setting up for a reversal into next year. There is no other choice. If not they can kiss their soft landing goodbye and risk a systemic break driven by another policy error. The original error: Staying too easy for too long being out of sync with market reality. The new error would be: Staying too tight for too long being again out of synch with market reality.”

Oh, by the way, the dollar has lost 17% of its purchasing power in the last 3 years. And that is if you believe the CPI is accurate. Most people know if it intentionally underreported inflation. So the loss in purchasing power is actually much more than 17%. If you are living in the States… is your salary up 25% in the past 3 years? If not you are (probably poorer.

👉🏽 Meanwhile, China has cut its holdings in US Treasuries to $805bn, the lowest level since 2009. Beijing has been selling $502bn in Treasuries in the past decade, & pace of Chinese selling has been accelerated recently. Now this looks bad. But some macroeconomists mention that out of the reported 22-23% drawdown in the Chinese holding of US Treasuries over the past 2 years, around 15-16% point is driven by mark-to-market effects.

More on this topic a great tweet by Jeroen Blokland:
– BRICS & Friends now hold more gold than the US.
– Moreover, the chart shows BRICS+ have been adding gold to their reserves for over a decade.
– Recently, the pace of gold accumulation has been increasing. Why do you think this is?
And equally important, does that mean you should add gold to your reserves as well?
You do not have to embrace extremely bearish views about the world to allow for structural changes in financial markets and, hence, your portfolio”

BRICS countries dump $ 123 billion in U.S. Treasuries in 2023.
Outside money, hence treasuries/bonds X
Inside money, hence hard money -> Gold… now ask yourself what is digital gold?
Bitcoin

👉🏽 “The ratio of the Nasdaq to US Treasuries return is currently at a record 8.2x. To put this in perspective, even at the peak of the 2001 bubble, the largest tech bubble in history, this ratio was ~4.8x. In other words, the Nasdaq to US Treasuries return ratio is now 70% HIGHER than it was in 2001. It’s now also 5.5x HIGHER than it was at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. There has never been a larger gap between return in equities and US Treasuries.” – The Kobeissi Letter

👉🏽 For the first time in 23 years, 8% mortgage rates are officially back. Less than 3 years ago, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage was just 2.6%. The median monthly payment for homebuyers will cross $3,000 this month. We are paying the price for “free” money after $4 trillion of stimulus in years of zero-rate policy.

👉🏽 On the 18th of October we received the news that the Governing Council (ECB) has decided to move to the next phase of the digital euro project.

Lagarde: “We need to prepare our currency for the future. While we haven’t yet decided whether to issue a digital euro, we’re getting ready. We envisage a digital euro as a digital form of cash that can be used for all digital payments, coexisting with physical cash, leaving no one behind.”

Lyn Alden: “They say that it would coexist with physical cash, but it’s important to keep in mind that once both exist, it is much easier to phase out physical cash. Most changes to the financial system have been piecemeal, swapping out one small item at a time until it’s totally different.”

My view: Lagarde getting community notes on the ECB CBDC. The digital euro has nothing to do with cash at all. Don’t trust, verify! The digital euro is not digital in any meaningful sense. It’s a CBDC and controlled by the ECB. Its ownership can be revoked with a keystroke as it lives in a centralized ledger controlled by the ECB. Cash is anonymous. The digital euro is not. Bitcoin is dictator-proof. Buy Bitcoin while they still allow you to use YOUR money to buy what YOU want.

My savings account: Bitcoin

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: The Relai app is especially suited for beginners or people that want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy.

For new users, the app can be downloaded from all Play Stores. The iOS version is only available in Swiss, Austrian, German, and Italian App Stores. If you set up a Bitcoin Savings Plan (weekly/monthly) you can use my code CRYPTOFRIDAY and your fees will be reduced by 0.5%!

Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (Youtube) for more info. ⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node…be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

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