🧠Quote(s) of the week:

“Buying Bitcoin is a game of accumulation, and it’s the best tool to counteract monetary inflation. Keep purchasing Bitcoin until it’s no longer feasible. Fiat is designed to be inflationary, the monetary system itself is this way. The best counterattack is Bitcoin”

“You panic sell Bitcoin because it’s a speculative trade. I calmly buy Bitcoin because it is the greatest long-term savings vehicle humanity has ever seen. We are not the same.” – Dr. Jeff Ross

🧡Bitcoin news🧡:

➡️ El Salvador President Nayib Bukele scared off Wall Street by embracing Bitcoin. Two years later, the bond rally he’s overseeing is proving too lucrative to resist. “Eye-popping 70% returns — the best among dollar bonds from emerging markets this year”.

I quote Alex Gladstein:

“At some point, it’s going to be hard to distinguish why Salvadoran bonds are attractive. Later it will be obvious that a nation-state stacking BTC during the adoption phase will be easily able to pay back its fiat debt. I hope that more emerging market countries figure this out.”

TLDR: The country which adopted Bitcoin first has the best bond returns among emerging markets. Fascinating isn’t it?!

➡️Bitcoin OG and Blockstream CEO Adam Back predicts that Bitcoin will break $100,000 before the 2024 Halving. For some strange feeling, I trust this guy. Adam Back was one of the original developers of Bitcoin. But let’s assume the halving is already priced in, let’s see have a look at the thing that isn’t priced in yet:

– Spot ETF

– Absolute scarcity

– The Lightning Network

– FAAMG buying Bitcoin

– Legal tender in larger countries

“The halving has no impact on the Bitcoin price because the halving’s impact on the Bitcoin price is already priced in by people who believe the halving has no impact on the Bitcoin price because it’s already priced in.” -BitPaine

Get it 🙂

➡️ Last week the SEC delayed a decision on ArkInvest’s Bitcoin Spot ETF last Friday. The next (7) deadlines are all in the first week of September — where the SEC has to comment on ETFs by BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity & Valkyrie, among others. I expect more delay and as mentioned in a previous recap I truly believe the first ETF will be accepted by the SEC just before the halving. And if you think Blackrock and Fidelity are just going to roll over and give up on Bitcoin because the ETF (in its current form) may get denied, you are a fool. They’ve made their intentions clear. Fidelity literally predicted $1 billion per BTC. The big boys just need more time to scoop more cheap sats.

➡️ Last week on the 15th of August Europe’s first spot Bitcoin ETF was listed in Amsterdam and trading under the ticker $BCOIN, investors will pay a 1.5% annual management fee. Fidelity Digital Assets are the custodians.

➡️ Bitcoin crashed to $26.1k, and it seems nothing more than a massive liquidation. And it was one of the largest daily liquidations by volume in history. More than a BILLION worth of positions got wiped out in 24 hours. This mass-liquidation event involved more outflows in 1 day than during the FTX collapse in November 2022.

Leveraged long liquidation cascade, bruv. For the rest of us non-trading degens… Bitcoin and chill.

➡️I quote Pete Rizzo:

“19 years ago today (14th of August), cypherpunk and Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney officially released RPoW. A novel digital cash that combined proof-of-work with an inflation-resistant money, RPoW may have failed, but it proved critical to cryptocurrency. Thanks, Hal for never giving up!”

“Exactly 15 years ago (18th of August), Satoshi Nakamoto officially registered the 1st Bitcoin website. Ever since, Bitcoin.org has hosted his code, giving financial freedom to millions around the world”

➡️Bitcoin makes a new ATH in Argentina, officially passing 10 million Argentinian pesos. The Argentinian stock market is up a massive 2282% in just 6 years! In real terms? Down 12%. Fun how that works isn’t it?

And to make it even worse Argentina fixes oil prices at $56 a Barrel to put inflation in check. We all know price controls won’t help!

Price fixing leads to shortages which inevitably leads to higher long-term inflation.

➡️Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin will completely change social media’s advertising business mode

➡️Coinbase gets approval to offer crypto derivatives directly to retail US users. The offering will launch within weeks. So let me get this straight. In the middle of a lawsuit with the SEC, they get approved to offer derivatives to retail. The SEC really wants to protect retail, right?

➡️ Bitcoin number of addresses holding 1+ coins just reached an ATH of 1,014,879.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 In the US there are now 14 banks calling for a recession and 6 banks calling for a soft landing. At the Fed’s last meeting, they said they are no longer forecasting a recession. JP Morgan was the most recent bank to say they no longer expect a recession.

What will it be? A soft landing or a recession? Or a soft landing for too-big-to-fail banks, recession for everyone else.

Talking about too big to fail:

UBS, to pay a $1.4 billion fine for fraud in mortgage-backed securities. Earlier this year, UBS acquired Credit Suisse. When combined, this brings the banks’ total fines paid since 2000 up to $31 BILLION. They have been fined a total of 177 times. Anyway, if you want to dive into a rabbit hole, now do Deutschebank, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America..and…and…and! All criminals, but they’re a bank so it’s okay. Right?

👉🏽 Michael Burry just shorted the market with $1.6B Bought $890M of $SPY Puts Bought $740M of $QQQ Puts. This now makes up 93% of his entire portfolio.

Tip: Watch the movie The Big Short. “Those guys knew the logic, math & fundamentals were in their favor…but they second-guessed themselves at points because the vast majority of people thought they were crazy. Kinda like Bitcoin.” Blue Collar Bitcoin

👉🏽 “Emergency loans from the Fed’s BTFP facility have reached $107.24 billion, another all-time high. BTFP has a capacity of $2 trillion. Total losses on US Treasuries due to rising rates are $1.371 trillion. If need be… the Fed could backstop the entire US Treasury market’s current losses.” – Joe Consorti
One world: UNSUSTAINABLE!

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

👉🏽Rates on 30-year mortgages in the US are now the highest since 2000, at 7.53%.

“Housing Market Update:

1. Average 30Y mortgage rate at 7.5%, highest since 2000

2. Median rent price at a record $2000/month

3. Mortgage demand is at its lowest since 1995

4. Median house now costs a record 560% of the median income

5. Homebuyers spend a record 40% of their income on mortgage payments This is the least affordable housing market in history.” – The Kobeissi Letter

2 years ago, buying a $500,000 home with 20% down meant you paid $207,000 in interest over a 30-year mortgage. Now, buying that same home means you pay $600,000 in interest over a 30-year mortgage. Yikes!

Or the example from last week’s Weekly Recap:

“Interest rates on a 30-year mortgage are now at their highest in 23 years. New homebuyers are now spending a record 40% of their income on a mortgage. Meanwhile, the median sales price of a home in the US is at 560% of the median annual income.”

Again, unsustainable.

👉🏽 Last week the US Secretary of the Treasury described her hallucinogenic trip on shrooms in China on national TV (CNN). By the way, the US Treasury plans to borrow $1.1 trillion before 2024, pushing total US debt above $33.5 trillion. Don’t do drugs kids!

Meanwhile, and I quote Guy Swann:

“• Biden just asked Congress for $24,000,000,000 MORE for Ukraine

• Maui victims will get $700 each

• Population of Maui = ~180,000 $24B = $130,000 for EACH Maui resident…

We’ve sent ~$80 Billion to Ukraine so far… I’ll let you do the math.”

I don’t want to interfere in US politics or what so ever, but just want to say: numbers don’t lie. It reveals true incentives.

👉🏽 “In the first 7 months of 2023, the U.S. has seen an alarming 402 corporate bankruptcies. This is more than the entire 2022 total of 373. In the first 7 months of 2022, the U.S. saw just 205 bankruptcies. In other words, bankruptcies this year are up 96% compared to 2022. Can the Fed really avoid a recession?” -The Kobeissi Letter

I have a feeling that the Fed is trying its best to delay the recession till the elections next year. How successful they will be in this endeavor still remains to be seen.

👉🏽 Last week I mentioned the following: “Where other countries are fighting inflation, China has entered full deflation mode! CPI -0.3% PPI -4.4%.” -Jeroen Blokland

China sees deflation for the first time since COVID Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley says policymakers “need to accelerate all the government spending, raising government debt to break this debt deflation trap.”

Last week China’s 10y yields kept falling, a sign that the economy is hard landing/crashing. China’s 10y yield is now at 2.6%, the lowest level since Corona crisis in 2020. The Chinese Yuan is at its weakest since 2007.

A couple of days ago I shared in my Instagram stories a great threat by Sam Callahan on the challenges China currently faces.

TLDR: “So that’s where China finds itself today. Its economy is slowing, prices are falling, the gov is censoring, intervening, and stimulating, the PBOC is cutting rates, and its currency is falling. Many expect this is just the beginning and more stimuli are on the horizon.”

Even Legendary investor Ray Dalio who has +$3B invested in Chinese businesses says the country is “overdue” for a debt shake-up. China has almost doubled its debt over the past 5 years. Debt-to-GDP is now at a record 281.5%

On top of that China Evergrande seeks Chapter 15 protection in Manhattan bankruptcy court Evergrande owes money to about 171 domestic banks and 121 other financial firms. There will be consequences for the banking system. A credit crunch could follow, analysts fear, which would be bad news for China and the global economy.

Remember Evergrande has struggled to pay off its loans after officially defaulting on its debt in late-2021. The property company’s debt load reached 2.437 trillion yuan ($340 billion) by the end of last year.

That is roughly 2% of China’s entire gross domestic product. 2% GDP!

👉🏽The 10-year at 4.27% is its highest closing level since June 16, 2008.

👉🏽First Germany, and now the Netherlands entering a recession. The Dutch economy unexpectedly succumbs to its first recession since the pandemic on weakness in both consumer spending and exports. Now officially European countries in a recession are:

🇪🇪 Estonia

🇭🇺 Hungary

🇳🇱 Netherlands

🇩🇪 Germany

Germany is the number 1 economy in the Eurozone and the Netherlands is the 5th largest economy in the Eurozone. The EU as a whole is in decline. Opt-out Bitcoin.

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: The Relai app is especially suited for beginners or people that want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy.

For new users, the app can be downloaded from all Play Stores. The iOS version is only available in Swiss, Austrian, German, and Italian App Stores. If you set up a Bitcoin Savings Plan (weekly/monthly) you can use my code CRYPTOFRIDAY and your fees will be reduced by 0.5%!

Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (Youtube) for more info. ⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node…be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

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