🧠Quote(s) of the week:

“Bitcoin makes life simpler.

1) Stack sats weekly, without fail;

2) Focus on improving your craft;

3) Enjoy family & friends

Ignore everything else: news, narratives, USD price, etc.

Do this for 4 years straight, and your life will take an exponential jump.” -Oliver Velez

“Inflation is the surest way to fertilize the rich man’s field with the sweat of the poor man’s brow.”

Bitcoin news:🧡

➡️ “15 years ago (22nd of August), Adam Back reviewed the 1st draft of the Bitcoin white paper in an email sent to him by Satoshi Nakamoto.” – Rizzo

➡️ On the 24th of August, 6 years ago, the biggest Bitcoin upgrade of all time was activated on its 3rd attempt. SegWit paved the way for Lightning, lowered fees, and is used in 90% of transactions today.” -Rizzo

➡️ Argentina’s demand for stablecoins is spiking as the Argentinian Peso keeps plummeting. Argentina and many other countries are showing in monovision why and how Bitcoin will give a better chance to people.

➡️ Solo Bitcoin miner with ~1PH of hashrate mined a block and won a 6.25 BTC reward, worth over $160,000

➡️ On the 21st of August, we saw one of the biggest Bitcoin outflows from Binance roughly $125M. Last week we also heard the news that Mastercard & Binance to end crypto card membership. I’ve got no clue if this is “the end” of Binance and odds are I’m probably wrong…but the only thing I can say is: Get your funds off Binance.

➡️ The “unknown” address that accumulated more than $3bn worth of Bitcoin in the last 3 months, becoming the 3rd largest Bitcoin wallet, belongs to Robinhood Markets Inc, according to Arkham Intelligence.

➡️ Oman is investing heavily in the Bitcoin mining industry. The oil-rich Oman just announced they would invest $1.1 Billion in Bitcoin Mining Infrastructure.

Game theory at play.

“But after rigorous regulatory discussions that started back in 2019, the government of Oman eventually found Bitcoin to be in line with Islamic law”

Bitcoin is halal!

Oman’s Minister of Transport, IT, and Communications, Said Bin Hamoud al Maawali inaugurates a 200MW Bitcoin mine.

First El Salvador and Buthan, and now Oman are mining Bitcoin at a nation-state level.

Specifically, Oman is using Bitcoin mining to

– help wean its economy off its oil dependence

– support renewable energy power including flare gas mitigation.

The first three nation states to openly mine Bitcoin, and all from different energy sources: geothermal, hydro, and flared gas.

➡️ After obtaining the first license in Hong Kong, exchange HashKey will open Bitcoin trading for retail next week.

➡️ Bitcoin supply on exchanges is at the lowest level in 6 years. I think it is very encouraging that more people appear to be embarking upon self-custody.

➡️ The fifth biggest outflow of Bitcoin in 2023 occurred on the 25th of August, almost $300M (10k BTC).

➡️ “While The Fed struggles with high inflation it’s just 233 days until the next Bitcoin halving where we go from 1.7% to 0.85% inflation. Trust math, not central bankers.” – Bitcoin for Freedom (Twitter)

➡️ $3.5B crypto fund Pantera Capital predicts Bitcoin will go to $148,000 after the next halving, according to historic records. The funny thing is nobody knows how much the price of Bitcoin will reach. The only thing we know is that after the halving the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly. It is just math/code, and supply & demand.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 “Total emergency loans from the Fed’s BTFP facility have hit a new high of $107.39 billion. Banks’ losses on impaired US Treasuries continue being papered over.” -Joe Consorti

If you have no clue what the BTFP is? You might describe it as the temporary band-aide solution from the Fed. Because banks can submit the Treasury into the BTFP, and receive its nominal value (more or less) paying some interest.

This is a bank bailout program, but it will not stop future bank runs, because many banks do not have enough collateral. It is just kicking the can down the road.

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

👉🏽On the 25th of August we had the Powell speech at the Jackson Hole summit. To summarize it:

1. We are “prepared” to raise further if needed

2. The Fed will not change the 2% inflation target

3. “Will proceed carefully” on whether to hike again

4. Lowering inflation will require softer labor markets

5. Above-trend growth could put progress on inflation at risk and [that] could warrant [more hikes].

In other words, long pause until Nov, then the game begins. Honeybadger doesn’t care, tick-tock – next block!

I loved this line in the Powell speech: “We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”. What a ‘humble’ and ‘honest’ (sarcasm!) way to describe the way they’re trying to navigate Monetary Policy.

Translation: We have no clue!

👉🏽”The Fed Should Carefully Aim for a Higher Inflation Target If it can stick to stabilizing the economy now, then it could start thinking long-term in 2025.” source WSJ

After that, we received news/comments from America’s top economists, for example, Paul Krugman, subscribing to Jason Furman’s call for a 3% inflation target.

Now first of all, how was a 2% inflation target chosen? Why not a 4% or 5% inflation target? Why not a 6% or 7% inflation target? Why not a 6.9 target? I love the number 69. Question: What is the rational argument to have an inflation rate at all?

It is just pseudoscience in action! They have no clue.

What are the implications of raising the inflation target to 3%?

A 3% theft target means the value of your dollar (insert any fiat shitcoin) gets halved every 23 years rather than every 34 years.

What an inflation target of 3% really means: “Compounding something for over 100 years at 3.24% will result in well over 2000% inflation”

Or I quote James Lavish:

“If the Fed declares ‘victory’ at 3% inflation and maintains this level, then a dollar you make today is worth 74c in 10 years.”

“If you work 40 hrs/wk: at 5% inflation and after 5 years, you need a 28% pay raise or to work 44 more hours (*one full extra week* per month+) to make up the difference. This is inflation.”

It’s the miracle of compound theft! I believe this, a higher inflation target, is inevitable, also why saving using Bitcoin for the long term seems like a no-brainer at this point and moving forward with our monetary policies.

👉🏽 US Government debt will rise by $5.2 billion every day for the next decade. Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Bitcoin’s fixed supply and inflation resistance become more significant than ever! Why, because it takes government and any possibility of mis-“management” out of the equation. The US government/politicians wonder why credit downgrades on US debt are emerging.. shocker.

Debt is becoming more and more expensive: US 10y REAL yield briefly exceeds 2%, the highest since 2009.

Now let’s have a look at the current debt levels in the US: I will use the Kobeissi Letter:

“Current Debt Levels:

1. Household Debt: $17.1 trillion

2. Mortgage Debt: $12.0 trillion

3. Auto Loans: $1.6 trillion

4. Credit Card Debt: $1.0 trillion

All of these balances are at a RECORD high. Current Interest Rates:

1. Credit Card Debt: 25%

2. New Car Loans: 14%

3. Used Car Loans: 9%

4. 30Y Mortgage: 7.5% The worst part? Student loan payments are set to resume in one month. Total student loan debt just hit $1.6 trillion.”

👉🏽 According to reports Gen Z and millennials need between $3 million and $5 million in retirement savings to live comfortably due to inflation. Due to inflation, we haven’t included even the current debt levels. Source: watcher.guru/news/gen-z-and-millennials-need-3m-5m-to-retire-report

Just to put all the above in perspective: The U.S. has accumulated as much debt in the last 10 years as in the entire 100 years before that.

From 1923 – 2013: $16 trillion

From 2013 – 2023: $16 trillion

👉🏽 So why does the US have a Debt problem, well, they have a spending problem The US government has already spent $5.3 TRILLION this year. They are on track for the 4th consecutive year with $6 trillion or more in government spending. Since 2020, the US government has spent a jaw-dropping $25 TRILLION. To put this in perspective, the market cap of the S&P 500 is $37 trillion. Spending since 2020 is equivalent to 68% of the entire S&P 500 market cap.

What do we need globally? Fiscal responsibility! That should be a long-term objective that requires strategic planning, prudent decision-making, and collaboration between all branches of the government. Anyway, never going to happen!

👉🏽 U.S. existing home sales slide to the lowest rate since 2010. No one can afford to move with 7-8% mortgage rates.

👉🏽It’s Germany’s favorite time: Deflation Time:

“Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany. Producer Prices dropped for 1st time since 2020, a good leading indicator for Consumer Prices. In July, producer prices (PPI) fell by 6.0% YoY, the biggest decline since October 2009, when the financial crisis caused prices to collapse. Last year, the prices received by manufacturers for their goods had at times risen at a record rate of 45.8%.”

“The Bundesbank expects economic stagnation in the current Q3 as high-interest rates and weak global demand weigh on manufacturing. This means that Germany is lagging behind the rest of the Eurozone. The consensus expects Germany to shrink by 0.3% in 2023, while the other big economies will grow.” – Holger Zschaespitz

Ergo: Germany is the sick man of Europe! Why? Overall industrial production is at the same level as in 2007. Of Germany’s 6 major industrial sectors, only the electrical industry managed to rise above its pre-corona level in 2019. Germany’s flagship industries, automotive and mechanical engineering sectors, are stagnating. The situation is particularly bad for the chemical industry.

German ecologists are in charge: the results are there. German business activity is falling and the economy is starting to fall off a cliff.

The ‘Green’ central planning isn’t working well, innit!? Europe’s inflation looks set to fall off a cliff. It’s only showing that because Europe is in a zombie manufacturing status.

👉🏽 The 2-year US Treasury yield is back above 5.0%!

👉🏽 M2 fell -3.7% from July 2022 to July 2023 — continuing the longest streak of US dollar contraction in 90 years:

“Number one reason a recession/depression is coming. The Fiat system only works when new money is created handover first. When it is contracting, the opposite happens very quickly in the overleveraged debt world we live in.” HardmoneyBTC

👉🏽BRICS agrees to invite Saudi Arabia, Iran, and UAE to join the bloc. What does this mean? Now, six of the world’s nine largest oil producers are members of the BRICS. In total, the BRICS countries account for 52% of global oil production.

The de-dollarization is inevitable. We just don’t know the timeframe. Thank god the priority in the West is respecting people’s preferred pronouns, CO2 emissions, and policing what people say online. Better be aware and have something that can’t be debased or confiscated. Hard, sound money: Bitcoin.

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: The Relai app is especially suited for beginners or people that want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy.

For new users, the app can be downloaded from all Play Stores. The iOS version is only available in Swiss, Austrian, German, and Italian App Stores. If you set up a Bitcoin Savings Plan (weekly/monthly) you can use my code CRYPTOFRIDAY and your fees will be reduced by 0.5%!

Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (Youtube) for more info. ⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node…be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

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