Weekly Recap - 16.10.2023

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

“Money is the barometer of a society’s virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion–when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing–when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors–when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you–when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice–you may know that your society is doomed.”—Ayn Rand

“If you’re new to Bitcoin you may have heard the term “cycle theory” thrown around.  Put simply, cycle theory suggests that Bitcoiners in proximity to each other will get their period at the same time. This group menstrual phenomenon is colloquially referred to as the bear market and lasts on average 3 years.”- Hodl

🧡Bitcoin news:

➡️Last week I attended the Bitcoin Conference in Amsterdam, and together with my fellow Noderunners, we represented the Dutch and Belgian Bitcoin communities.

-Run a node
-Be a Bitcoin maximalist
-Being toxic is much appreciated

We started Dutch maximalist meetings (shitcoining=ban).

This blew up, legendary meetings followed, and the group was getting bigger and bigger.
The cult within a cult is growing and becoming a household name in the space. Value-based communities are the new organization model.  Dutch Noderunners show the way. I am happy I am part of the group.
https://twitter.com/onthebrinkie/status/1713160088981004569

https://twitter.com/onthebrinkie/status/1713264646159831316

Although I enjoyed the conference I have some criticisms.

A blasphemy that people are buying full-price tickets just to witness and hear the same talk you already can find on YouTube, Github, or even on my IG page.
There is no groundbreaking news coming out of these conferences, nor is there any revolutionary knowledge transfer taking place.

More of my critics are in line with  @starbuilder on stacker.news: https://stacker.news/items/283541

For example, the level of shit-coiners on the panels and sponsors.

Do you want to attend next year’s conference? Great! For newbies, the conference is something people should experience at least once so that they appreciate the smaller conferences. Even someone on a budget could skip the conference ticket and just lobby / offsite parties in the area.

➡️ Here are the stats for the side events
https://twitter.com/BitKassaNL/status/1713571733368664416/photo/1

➡️ HODLers are stronger than ever! Long-term holders now own 76% of the circulating supply (14.859M Bitcoin), and they’re accumulating at a rate of over 50k BTC per month, suggesting that Bitcoin’s supply is tightening.

➡️Great write-up by Sam Callahan. So many questions about “Project Atlas” and curious to see that the DNB (Dutch Central Bank) is involved.

TLDR: Project Atlas would provide regulators with a  global overview of Bitcoin flows, what entities are involved with what transaction, and their magnitude and concentration.

“It’s notable that CoinJoin is on the reader of these regulators. I expect it will only be a matter of time before they attempt to ban CoinJoins. So if you want to CoinJoin your stack, it might be smart to do it sooner rather than later.”
https://twitter.com/samcallah/status/1712128988611563803

Full paper: https://bis.org/publ/othp76.pdf

Coinjoin is an optional tool that enhances privacy in Bitcoin transactions: when Bitcoin users conduct transactions with one another using Coinjoin, they obscure the origins and destinations of the funds, greatly enhancing their privacy.

If you have no clue what a Coinjoin is, study/learn here: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/a-comprehensive-bitcoin-coinjoin-guide

➡️Caroline Ellison testified that SBF instructed her to “keep selling BTC if it’s over $20K.” The Bitcoin they sold were stolen customer funds. FTX sold customers’ Bitcoin without their consent. It is likely, at least in part, to support the price of FTT and stave off margin calls. People will lose their shit when they realize that Bitvavo (EU), Binance, and other centralized exchanges are doing the exact same thing, right now. Stop using these platforms! Use Peach Bitcoin, Relai or 21Bitcoinapp. click here for more information. 

➡️ More craptostuff, Solana:
https://twitter.com/icebergy_/status/1712587637754560915

HFSP if you still want to invest in shitcoins.

➡️There’s a 90% chance that Bitcoin ETFs will be approved by the January 10 deadline for ARK’s application  – Bloomberg’s ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart

➡️ “The SEC has decided not to appeal Grayscale’s court victory in the battle to convert its trust into a Bitcoin ETF.  The SEC will now have to approve Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF bid if it can’t find new reasons to delay or deny it.”
It looks like the SEC has held back on a Bitcoin ETF as long as they could. January 2024 will be interesting.

➡️ Today, Monday the 16th of October 2023, many traders were caught off guard over $50M in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated on the fake BlackRock spot ETF approval news. Put your Bitcoin in cold storage to sit back and relax until the real pump begins.

➡️Madeira’s President announces the creation of a Bitcoin business hub for innovation at Bitcoin Amsterdam 2023. Emphasizing tech development and collaboration, this autonomous region is embracing Bitcoin with open arms!
“Individuals in Madeira that buy and sell bitcoin … don’t pay taxes. They’re not subject to personal income taxes.”

➡️New record Bitcoin hashrate! The global Bitcoin network calculates ~440,000,000,000,000,000,000 algorithms every second protecting the blockchain. Strength of the Bitcoin network since launch.
https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1713304315991925000

➡️ “Whales are accumulating!  On Oct. 14th, 16 new wallets joined the crowd of Bitcoin whales holding between 100 and 1K Bitcoin. This is the greatest daily increase since February 2022.”

➡️ Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline as we enter less than 200 days until the halving.  Currently at levels not seen since early 2018.

👉🏽7 stocks are holding up the entire stock market. Never has market direction been so driven by just a few stocks that are all technology-focused.
The S&P 7, now reflects a record 29.7% of the entire index by market cap. This is up sharply from 20% at the beginning of 2023 and above the 29.1% high in 2021. Meanwhile, the S&P 7 is up over 50% and continues to drive market direction. The remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are currently up just 3% in 2023.
Put another way, when you invest $1 in the S&P 500, almost 30 cents of that dollar goes to just 7 stocks. The rest of that dollar goes to … 493 other stocks. Amazing.

Personally, I think this is unsustainable, but who am I? Please ask your favorite stockpicker about his/her view on this matter.

🏦Banks:
👉🏽Realtors, banks, and home builders associations begging the Fed to stop raising rates. Not a good look.
They wrote a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and are asking for…
1. No more rate hikes
2. The Fed to “not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized”.

👉🏽World’s banks earned $1.3tn in 2022, in the best period for global banking overall since at least 2007, according to McKinsey. The estimate for 2023 profits, at $1.4tn, is even higher. The spike in global interest rates has broadly been great for banks, which are not passing those higher rates on to their depositors.
source: www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-8c7f997f-168f-49cf-b471-c726901bf78b.html?chunk=0#story0

Say what… ‘earned’? Anyway,…bankers gonna bank!

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽Chinese property developer, Country Garden, failed to make a debt payment after apartment sales dropped in September. Country Garden said its sales have come under “remarkable pressure” and are down 44% this year. In September, Country Garden’s sales plummeted 81% to just $846 million. Country Garden is one of China’s largest developers with $187 billion in liabilities. This comes just 2 months after China’s largest property developer, Evergrande, filed Chapter 15 bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the Chinese HY Real Estate index is down ~85% from its high. – The Kobeissi Letter

This isn’t going to end well and NO the world economy is NOT strong. A big part of China’s growth was/is connected to its real estate market. Housing alone accounts for 25% of China’s entire GDP.

“A bank run has begun in China at the Bank of Cangzhou on fears that the collapse of Evergrande made them insolvent. Just a couple of months ago, China’s largest property developer, Evergrande, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy. This week, Country Garden, another major Chinese developer, missed a debt payment.” – TKL

👉🏽Once again higher for longer. “In September PPI inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.2%, above expectations of 1.6%. Core PPI inflation rose to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.3%. This is the first jump in Core PPI since April 2022. PPI inflation is now up 3 consecutive months. And if we take into account the revision that will come next month, core PPI could rise to 3%.”
Why? “There were just major revisions higher in the August PPI inflation data. Headline and core PPI inflation was revised higher by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Data revisions continue to favor higher for longer.” – TKL

“All the headlines say that inflation is now 3.7%. But, what they fail to mention is that this is building on YEARS of inflation. 3.7% inflation is building on 8.2% in September 2022 and 5.4% in September 2021. That means that inflation since September 2021 has been nearly 20%. Furthermore, even if the rate of inflation is falling, prices are still RISING. Many people confuse disinflation with deflation. Even with disinflation, which we have now, prices are still rising” – TKL

1. That number is misleading as it leaves out gasoline, shelter, used cars, and food prices in the calculation. Sure inflation has come down, now that they removed from the metric everything that human beings need to live:
food, energy, shelter, and transportation.

2. Remember ladies & gentlemen: Few understand the following and I quote James Lavish:
“If you work 40 hrs/wk: at 5% inflation and after 5 years, you need a 28% pay raise or to work 44 more hours (*one full extra week* per month+) to make up the difference. This is inflation.” Now check that number again.

3. “While CPI inflation is at 3.7%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities:
1. Car Insurance Inflation: 18.9%
2. Car Repair Inflation: 10.2%
3. Transportation Inflation: 9.1%
4. Rent Inflation: 7.4%
5. Homeowner Inflation: 7.1%
6. Food Away From Home Inflation: 6.0%
7. Meat & Poultry Inflation: 4.8%
While headline inflation is down from its highs, many basic necessities are still seeing 5%+ inflation. It’s also worth noting that we do NOT have deflation, we have disinflation.’

👉🏽”French nuclear production in September was ~50% higher than September last year. 2023 production (so far) is 11% higher than Jan-Sept production in 2022. France is putting the recent difficult times behind it. That will reduce EU air pollution and CO2 emissions and will reduce power costs. Hopefully, it will also mean that cherry-picked arguments by nuclear opponents will fade.”

France is interconnected with 6 European countries: the UK, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and ……Germany.
In my view, nuclear must be part of the energy mix and every country should embrace it.

👉🏽Ray Dalio now believes there is a 50% chance of World War 3 erupting. From a global pandemic and lockdown to World War 3 possibilities in just 3 years. Classic!

Some of you know that I am a big fan of Dalio’s books. I am not going to say that I agree with Dalio, but it’s worth internalizing a lesson from history now and then.

👉🏽If you made it this far, I salud you.
Lyn Alden’s October newsletter is worth the read. She discusses the US fiscal situation in the context of recent events, and how history can be a guide for navigating this current environment.
www.lynalden.com/october-2023-newsletter

👉🏽Argentina is currently experiencing 138% annual inflation. Their central bank has hiked to 133% in an attempt to reduce demand. Argentine Peso crashes as Presidential Candidate Calls it “Excrement”.

Milei has a 74.2% chance of winning the upcoming elections. Interestingly, Milei favors the dollarization of the Argentine economy and considers the local peso worthless. With Javier Milei surging in the polls, the current administration abolished the income tax a week before the Argentine presidential elections.

Now I want you to read that again.. “abolishes the income tax”.
Imagine you are 60 years old and your government does this.

“The obvious question should be:
What the fuck have I been doing paying income tax all this time if it’s this easy to get rid of it?

There’s no reason to believe that this won’t happen in other countries. And there’s only one way to pay for something like this:
More debt, money printing, inflation, and the destruction of your time and energy.

But they’re willing to do that (and more) to save their own asses.

Taxes are extortion, inflation is theft.
That’s why we Bitcoin.🧡

I am trying to be less of a “gloom and doomer”… but stuff like this (segment Traditional Finance & Macro Economics) isn’t helping my optimism.

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin

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Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (Youtube) for more info. ⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node…be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

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