Weekly Recap - 30.10.2023
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
“Where do you spend most of your time and energy?
A system is trying to control you with fear and division. (and is it getting worse?) or
A system based on truth, hope, and abundance. (and is it getting better?)
A mirror of thoughts, words, and actions.”
“Fear versus hope”
An eternal battle inside each of us, with our thoughts & actions reinforcing the world we each see,
Fear stops people from moving towards hope, and can be used effectively against you.
We all have a choice.
Those choices, in turn, shape our future!”
– Jeff Booth
🧡Bitcoin news:
Now before we start the weekly recap I want to share a tweet by Dr. Jeff Ross, as the war/genocide in Gaza intensifies.
“On a fiat currency standard, central planners argue that more fiat must be created in order to fund two or three simultaneous wars.
On a Bitcoin standard, decentralized users understand that sustained major wars are generally unaffordable, massively wasteful, and, therefore, unlikely to occur.
One currency standard generally wastes human life, while the other monetary standard generally preserves it.
Which world do you prefer?
The choice is yours.
Bitcoin is better money for a better world.”
– Dr. Jeff Ross
➡️ There is no second best. Bitcoin has no competitor as it is the apex property of the human race.
➡️ Spot exchange volumes surpassed $24B, reaching an 8-month high amid expectations of an imminent Bitcoin ETF approval
➡️ “There’s so much pent-up demand for Bitcoin — $200 Trillion of Institutional assets that can’t touch it until an ETF is approved. – Ernst & Young (one of the top 4 global consulting)
It’s the regulatory green light institutional investors are waiting for: “The spot Bitcoin ETF will be like a superhighway on-ramp for many institutional investors. It translates Bitcoin into the securities language they already know and speaks and does business in every day.” – James Lavish
“Blackrock, Fidelity, Invesco and other major spot Bitcoin ETF issuers will probably need several million Bitcoin to satisfy consumer demand over the next 24 months. Where are they going to find that much ‘physical’ BTC without driving the price to $200,000+?”
I am not sure about the ‘several million Bitcoin’, but yes this will be the market dynamic.
Anyway talking about the approval…
➡️SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce says the “logic for why we haven’t approved a Spot Bitcoin ETF has always mystified me.”
SEC is supposed to protect retail investors but seems like they do everything to make sure retail doesn’t make money. The delay only makes sense if there is an underlying agenda to shield conflicting interests. Just to put it down in simple terms: Old money hates new money and tries to find ways to control the narrative, create pump/dumps, and profit from it.
“Bitcoin is a “safe haven asset” that consistently outperforms gold” – $676 Billion fund manager Alliance Bernstein
➡️ Last week we received the news that some people on Coinbase encountered a new $5k/wk withdrawal limit policy. The policy was implemented on 13.10.2023. I can only guess why they implemented the policy. Exchanges only have fractional reserves of your Bitcoin, so please repeat after me: not your keys…
They are going to close the exits soon. Self-custody is the only safe option. Learn how to self-custody. End of the day if you have Bitcoin on exchanges you are playing a game of musical chairs. If you are last to down, you lose!
Talking about not your keys, not your coins…
➡️ Ledged launched their ‘Ledger Recovery’. So what is the new service and how does it work?
I quote Ledger: “Ledger Recover is a new service that is 100% optional. Ledger Recover is an ID-based key recovery service that provides a backup for your Secret Recovery Phrase. If you lose or don’t have access to your Secret Recovery Phrase, the service allows you to securely restore your private keys using a Ledger device.”
How this works:
STEP 1: Identity verification
Verify your identity using a valid ID document and a selfie recording.
STEP 2: Creating the backup
Connect your Ledger device and approve the creation of the backup for your Secret Recovery Phrase. Once approved, your Ledger device will encrypt the entropy of your Secret Recovery Phrase—a string of random 1s and 0s from which your Secret Recovery Phrase is computed. The encrypted entropy is fragmented into three pieces within the Secure Element chip. These fragments become the backup for your Secret Recovery Phrase. Ledger Recover only interacts with the fragments of the encrypted entropy, and never with your Secret Recovery Phrase in its readable format.
STEP 3: Securing the backup
The fragments are securely distributed using end-to-end encrypted and authenticated channels to the Hardware Security Modules (HSMs) of three independent companies – Ledger, Coincover, and EscrowTech. Each fragment on its own is a useless set of random numbers.
STEP 4: Linking the backup to your verified identity
Each fragment is linked to your verified identity from Step 1, so only you can request to retrieve the backup.
You will be billed 9,99€ per month after the first free month. You can unsubscribe anytime. Exclusively for Ledger Nano X.
Now my take on it:
There is no point in owning a hardware wallet if you’re just going to give your private key to the government and corporations.
If you use this service, you are signing up for a simple seizure of funds if Ledger willingly (or unwillingly due to government pressure) decides to collaborate with one of the other storage providers.
If you want to read my full explanation:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CsWLjWosy0Z/?img_index=2
➡️ Casa CEO Nick Neuman sends an email to customers warning of abnormalities at Binance and encouraging them to remove funds from the exchange ASAP.
➡️ Bitcoin setting new All-Time Highs in countries around the world including Argentina, Egypt, Laos, and Lebanon. Also ATH in Turkish lira and Nigerian naira. Although I think this is less about Bitcoin ATHs and more about government-caused inflation ATHs.
➡️BlackRock’s ETF ticker was removed from listing on the DTCC website and the huge volume of traffic from people checking broke the serve
➡️ On the 24th of October Bitcoin crested $34,500 for the first time since spring 2022 as the spot ETF hope rally gains steam $17 million short bitcoin futures have been liquidated in the last 20 minutes. $117 million in shorts have been liquidated and forced to buy spot today.
With the price surge to $33.8K, MicroStrategy is $679,000,000 in profit on their Bitcoin investment
➡️ Bitcoin Dominance surpasses 54% – a level not seen since April 2021, and 80% of Bitcoin addresses are now in profit.
➡️
➡️”Last week, the @WSJ published an article claiming about $90 million worth of crypto was used to fund Hamas — a serious claim that gained significant attention. In response to the article, anti-Bitcoin politicians directly linked the WSJ article as evidence in a letter to the White House and Treasury “to address the serious national security threats posed by crypto’s use to finance terrorism.” Later, it was confirmed that the article was patently false. It was straight-up fake news. This was confirmed by @chainalysis, which ran the numbers.” – Sam Callahan
Read more here:
➡️”Stocks down. Bitcoin up! BlackRock CEO said Bitcoin is a “flight to quality” because of the global chaos. Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said “Bitcoin is the fastest horse in the race” in an inflationary recession. Is the De-Coupling finally here?” -Bitcoin Archive
➡️”Buy Bitcoin” Google searches spike globally, with a ~820% increase in the UK.
➡️ Bitcoin hash rate EXPLODES higher to 545 EH/s
➡️ “Remember this announcement?
“Ethereum will use at least ~99.95% less energy post-merge”
ETH is down 32% against BTC since. If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.”
Never change Tuur Demeester, never change!
Traditional Finance & Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽no news
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 no news
👉🏽 M2 US dollar money supply just logged its 10th straight month of contraction at -3.6% in September. The longest period of money supply contraction since 1933 just keeps getting longer. Although this isn’t a surprise. Rising interest rates and QT basically mean contracting M1 and M2. They are sucking the money out of the system that we injected during 2020-2021. Now why is this bad? Monetary policy-induced deflation into a system that is having debt through its freaking eyeballs, well that’s bad.
Imagine BTC’s price when this reverses and the printer goes brr again!? Despite the largest M2 contraction to date, Bitcoin is up 100%+ YTD.
👉🏽The US’ annual interest expense just hit $981 billion for the first time ever. The Fed hikes rates to reign in consumer demand… meanwhile, it bankrupts the US government. As tax receipts weaken, interest payments will be increasingly funded with more debt issuance.
👉🏽US GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 QoQ annualized, way faster than +4.3% expected. Now for fiat fanboys, this is a signal that the economy is strong. But… “The United States hasn’t made more than it spends since 2002. Those strong GDP numbers you’ve been sold are fuelled by even larger fiscal deficits. There is no “real” growth in the USA. It’s a multi-decade debt-fuelled bender.” – Joe Consorti
👉🏽US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen: “Biden has proposed deficit reduction plans.”
“And just like the Inflation Reduction Act, this new plan will expand the budget, increase the deficit, and cause more inflation. There is only one button in Washington and it is labeled ‘Spend’.” – James Lavish
On top of that, today we received the news that the Treasury expects to borrow nearly $1.6 trillion in net new debt during the six-month period covering this quarter and next quarter. Consequences, massive inflationary.
We are living in a world where debt is growing exponentially. In 2008 the US only needed a $5B cushion in the TGA – now the government needs a $700B cushion.
By the way, put this in Bitcoin’s perspective. The US Treasury is going to issue 2.6 Bitcoin networks worth of debt (55.000.000BTC) over the next six months. Yikes!
👉🏽US consumer 1-year inflation expectation median comes in at 4.2% vs 3.8% prelim. 5-year is 3%. This is re-accelerating. Not clearly well-anchored in my view even if the Fed continues to believe it. Inflation may go down, but prices never go down. Inflation is 3%, but prices are 30% higher than they were 2 years ago.
👉🏽 “For the first time in history, you need to make six figures to afford a house in the US. The annual income needed to afford a house is now $111,000, according to Reventure. Meanwhile, the median household income in the US is just $78,000, ~30% below that threshold. Just 3 years ago, in 2020, you needed $60,000 of annual income to afford a house. In other words, the income required to own a home has risen by 85% in 3 years. The gap between median income and income needed to afford a house is ~25% LARGER than it was in 2008”. – TKL
I will end this week’s Weekly Recap with a tweet by Preston Pysh:
Must Read Quote From Luke Gromen:
“Many investors appear to be operating under a misapprehension that this cycle is just like all the previous cycles in their career, even though the FED has *NEVER* tightened with debt/GDP at 120%, deficits/GDP at 6%, or US Net International Investment Position at -65% of GDP….
…. LET ALONE TIGHTENED WITH ALL THREE BEING TRUE AT ONCE! …
The implications of this are critical: On one hand, if the FED keeps tightening from here, they are going to lose the long end (at least until they create an outright 1987-like stock market crash, and then stand aside as the system implodes)…and even then, the bid for USTs will only last until tax receipts collapse and UST issuance skyrockets. On the other hand, if the FED loosens policy from here, they are also going to lose the long end.”
@LukeGromen
All I can say (Preston): Got Bitcoin?!”
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: The Relai app is especially suited for beginners or people that want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy.
For new users, the app can be downloaded from all Play Stores. The iOS version is only available in Swiss, Austrian, German, and Italian App Stores. If you set up a Bitcoin Savings Plan (weekly/monthly) you can use my code CRYPTOFRIDAY and your fees will be reduced by 0.5%!
Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (Youtube) for more info. ⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node…be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
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Disclaimer: This article should not be taken as, and is not intended to provide any investment advice. It is for educational and entertainment purposes only. As of the time of posting, the writer(s) may or may not have holdings in some of the coins or tokens they cover. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency, as all investments contain risk. All opinions expressed in these articles are my own and are in no way a reflection of the views of the used sources.
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